Will the first global stocktake be the spur for getting us on track to reach the Paris Agreement’s goals?

By Sirini Jeudy-Hugo, OECD Environment Directorate

The next round of international climate negotiations at COP28 in Dubai mark a critical juncture. They should prepare the ground for countries to step up their climate ambition and action in response to the first global stocktake of efforts under the Paris Agreement. This blog explains why it is important to seize this pivotal opportunity to course correct.

What is the Paris Agreement’s global stocktake?

In 2015 world leaders agreed to strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change and adopted the Paris Agreement which sets goals to limit the rise in average global temperatures, improve our ability to adapt to climate impacts, and align finance flows. The global stocktake (GST) is an exercise, undertaken every five years as part of the Agreement, to assess progress towards these goals. Beyond taking stock of efforts, the GST also informs countries’ climate undertakings, otherwise known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), and strengthens international co-operation. The GST thus marks a critical milestone in the Paris Agreement and its cycle to raise the ambition of climate efforts over time.

How are we doing and which areas need further action on climate?

The first GST was launched in 2021 at COP26 in Glasgow, marking the start of almost two years of information gathering and discussions to assess collective efforts under the Paris Agreement. This technical phase culminated in the publication of a comprehensive UN synthesis report in September. The report concludes that, while progress has been made, the world is not on track to meet the agreed climate goals and stronger efforts are urgently needed across all fronts. The report also identifies areas for further action and solutions available today, for example to support systems transformations across sectors, enhance efforts on adaptation and loss and damage, and scale up support (including finance) to enable stronger action.

The baton has now been handed over to the political phase of the first GST, which will culminate at COP28. Its success will depend on whether it can drive concrete action on the ground by informing stronger national and international climate efforts. Previous analysis by the OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group highlights how a well-designed GST that effectively engages countries and other stakeholders, and builds momentum within and beyond the UNFCCC process, can support subsequent action by different actors. The GST also provides an important opportunity for learning over time, for example by helping to fill identified knowledge gaps and improve approaches in different areas, which can in turn inform subsequent assessment cycles.

And where to next?

At COP28 in Dubai countries will decide how they respond to the findings of the first GST. This will be an important political test for the Paris Agreement and its ambition cycle. How will countries react to the first assessment of progress towards their common climate goals? Will they seize the opportunity to strengthen collective efforts and align current systems, structures, and mechanisms to be fit-for-purpose? Delivering a successful outcome of the first GST will be testament that the multilateral process can step up and deliver a credible response to keep its climate goals within reach.

Achieving a course correction with this first GST is thus critical, but not straightforward.

How can the technical findings of the GST translate into strong, clear political signals that can then be carried forward by different actors and drive concrete action on the ground? The structure of the final GST outputs will be important in this respect. Designing a package of GST outputs to deliver at COP28 with mutually supportive elements targeting different actors would:

• Send a clear message of hope and unity among countries in their commitment to the Paris Agreement and signal their willingness to do what is needed to get on track towards its goals.
• Set out actionable responses to the GST findings, including specific enablers to support the subsequent take-up of recommendations.
• Identify linkages and feedback loops between the GST and other processes, institutions, and actors both within and outside the UNFCCC for an “all hands-on deck” approach.
• Establish follow-up processes that build on current provisions and establish new systems where needed to improve accountability and inform subsequent GST cycles.

The GST does not end at COP28 but rather shifts gear into implementation mode in 2024.

By the time countries meet in the Brazilian city of Belém at COP30 in 2025, they are expected to have put forward strengthened NDCs informed by the first GST. It will be important to build in processes to follow-up on the GST’s recommendations and support countries’ NDC preparations throughout 2024 so they can put forward more ambitious and actionable climate plans in 2025. This will make the GST not just a box-ticking exercise but one that triggers stronger action on the ground to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach.

Further reading

OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group Papers:
– Towards a successful outcome of the first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement
– Adaptation in the global stocktake: Options to deliver on its mandate
– Translating outputs to outcomes under the global stocktake of the Paris Agreement

The first global stocktake at COP28: Using the first global stocktake to get on track to reach the Paris Agreement’s goals (Video)

OECD-IEA Climate Change Expert Group

Photo credit: Shutterstock / SOMKKU